With Cameron on one side and Boris on the other it doesn’t matter which way we vote - the Tories will still be in power after 23rd June and their power will be stronger if we Brexit.
Cameron wants us in because of problems for the economy if we leave. He believes change is needed, but it will be easier to do in Europe, because of the trading advantages it gives us.
The mid-range economic forecast from the IFF makes every household £1900 worse off a year if we leave the EU. The forecast commissioned by the CBI is blacker than this.
Boris wants us out because, like many Tories, he takes unnecessary risks and doesn’t mind, as long as they make money. He is prepared to lie to us and that is why Sarah Wollaston MD, Tory MP and chair of the Health committee, left the Leave Campaign.
Boris believes that trading disadvantages can be made up by making goods cheaper, and gaining more banking business when red tape is cut. Brexit would save £7bn that we currently “send to the EU and don’t get back” not £10bn, as he is suggesting, about £2 a week each.
If we leave, the UK will no longer be the Banker for Europe, We are leading the EU in reforming regulation on banks. Further de-regulation, possible outside the EU, might increase business, but do people really want another banking crisis?
If we leave, being the 5th largest economy in the world, the EU will put up trade barriers against us, as they have done against all major competitors, especially ones that have upset them. While there is no EU trade deal manufacturers won’t choose us as a base for business with Europe, not unless tax and manufacturing costs are heavily cut.
They say we could expand exports to the USA. Instead of a quick hop across the channel, and freedom to sell goods bound by only one set of regulations, and one set of vat returns, you have to send them across the Atlantic, fill in piles of import paperwork, pay tariffs, pay different taxes in each state, and then deal with litigation because you made a compliance error because every state has different regulations and your product turned up somehow in Alaska, and do all of this after work because of the time zone difference. Even if tariffs went, it would be hard.
SO WHO CARES ABOUT EXPORTS ANYWAY? We currently import more than we export. We are in debt. The IMF will not allow this to continue. Market confidence will reduce. Interest rates will be put up. This is the problem.
WHY DOES BORIS WANT US TO LEAVE AND MAKE TRADE HARDER?
To be able to get rid of regulations like ‘working time’ so they can make you work longer hours, sometimes dangerously, and therefore be able to pay you less money in real terms.
To make trade deals that allow import of skilled labour at below current market wages.
Brexit make no commitment to reduce immigration, just to changing the balance.
Pressure on Housing & NHS will be even greater, with longer term, more affluent workers.
To Repeal EU Environmental Legislation They want to be able to use seeds coated in pesticide that protect the plant for its life, whether this is needed or not. This saves money, because farmers don’t have to spray crops later if a disease problem should occur. Scientists say this is a problem. Whilst the chemical may not be harmful to us, repeated unnecessary use causes insects to build up resistance to the chemical quicker.
To raise tariffs to stop us buying EU goods?? We will still buy them. Tariffs haven’t helped USA balance of trade with EU. Could we be different? The German economy is healthy. They make good stuff, buy a lot of it, and work with others to set rules of conduct in trade war, to prevent real war.